# Cardiovascular Disease

(10-year risk)

(based on D'Agostino, Vasan, Pencina, Wolf, Cobain, Massaro, Kannel. 'A General Cardiovascular Risk Profile for Use in Primary Care: The Framingham Heart Study')

**Outcome**

CVD (coronary death, myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, angina, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, transient ischemic attack, peripheral artery disease, heart failure)

**Duration of follow-up**

Maximum of 12 years, 10-year risk prediction

**Population of interest**

Individuals 30 to 74 years old and without CVD at the baseline examination

**Predictors**

- Age
- Diabetes
- Smoking
- Treated and untreated Systolic Blood Pressure
- Total cholesterol
- HDL cholesterol
- BMI replacing lipids in a simpler model

## Risk Score Calculators

**Interactive**

**Excel spreadsheets**

## Regression Coefficients and Hazard Ratios - Primary Model

Men* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.88936) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Variable | Beta** | p-value | Hazard Ratio | 95% CI |

Log of Age | 3.06117 | <.0001 | 21.35 | (14.03, 32.48) |

Log of Total Cholesterol | 1.12370 | <.0001 | 3.08 | (2.05, 4.62) |

Log of HDL Cholesterol | -0.93263 | <.0001 | 0.40 | (0.30, 0.52) |

Log of SBP if not treated | 1.93303 | <.0001 | 6.91 | (3.91, 12.20) |

Log of SBP if treated | 1.99881 | <.0001 | 7.38 | (4.22, 12.92) |

Smoking | 0.65451 | <.0001 | 1.92 | (1.65, 2.24) |

Diabetes | 0.57367 | <.0001 | 1.78 | (1.43, 2.20) |

Women* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.95012) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Variable | Beta** | p-value | Hazard Ratio | 95% CI |

Log of Age | 2.32888 | <.0001 | 10.27 | (5.65, 18.64) |

Log of Total Cholesterol | 1.20904 | <.0001 | 3.35 | (2.00, 5.62) |

Log of HDL Cholesterol | -0.70833 | <.0001 | 0.49 | (0.351, 0.691) |

Log of SBP if not treated | 2.76157 | <.0001 | 15.82 | (7.86, 31.87) |

Log of SBP if treated | 2.82263 | <.0001 | 16.82 | (8.46, 33.46) |

Smoking | 0.52873 | <.0001 | 1.70 | (1.40, 2.06) |

Diabetes | 0.69154 | <.0001 | 2.00 | (1.49, 2.67) |

* The 10-year risk for women can be calculated as 1-0.95012^{exp(ΣßX - 26.1931)} where ß is the regression coefficient and X is the level for each risk factor; the risk for men is given as 1-0.88936^{exp(ΣßX - 23.9802)}

**Estimated regression coefficient

## Simple Office-based non-laboratory Predictors of CVD Regression Coefficients and Hazard Ratios

Men* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.88431) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Variable | Beta** | p-value | Hazard Ratio | 95% CI |

Log of Age | 3.11296 | <.0001 | 22.49 | (14.80, 34.16) |

Log of Body Mass Index | 0.79277 | <.0066 | 2.21 | (1.25, 3.91) |

Log of SBP if not treated | 1.85508 | <.0001 | 6.39 | (3.61, 11.33) |

Log of SBP if treated | 1.92672 | <.0001 | 6.87 | (3.90, 12.08) |

Smoking | 0.70953 | <.0001 | 2.03 | (1.75, 2.37) |

Diabetes | 0.53160 | <.0001 | 1.70 | (1.37, 2.11) |

Women* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.94833) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Variable | Beta** | p-value | Hazard Ratio | 95% CI |

Log of Age | 2.72107 | <.0001 | 15.20 | (8.59, 26.87) |

Log of Body Mass Index | 0.51125 | <.0609 | 1.67 | (0.98, 2.85) |

Log of SBP if not treated | 2.81291 | <.0001 | 16.66 | (8.27, 33.54) |

Log of SBP if treated | 2.88267 | <.0001 | 17.86 | (8.97, 35.57) |

Smoking | 0.61868 | <.0001 | 1.86 | (1.53, 2.25) |

Diabetes | 0.77763 | <.0001 | 2.18 | (1.63, 2.91) |

* The 10-year risk for women can be calculated as 1-0.94833^{exp(ΣßX - 26.0145)} where ß is the regression coefficient and X is the level for each risk factor; the risk for men is given as 1-0.88431^{exp(ΣßX - 23.9388)}

**Estimated regression coefficient