Cardiovascular Disease
(10-year risk)

(based on D'Agostino, Vasan, Pencina, Wolf, Cobain, Massaro, Kannel. 'A General Cardiovascular Risk Profile for Use in Primary Care: The Framingham Heart Study')

Outcome
CVD (coronary death, myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, angina, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, transient ischemic attack, peripheral artery disease, heart failure)

Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 12 years, 10-year risk prediction

Population of interest
Individuals 30 to 74 years old and without CVD at the baseline examination

Predictors

Risk Score Calculators

Interactive Excel spreadsheets

Regression Coefficients and Hazard Ratios - Primary Model

Men* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.88936)
Variable Beta** p-value Hazard Ratio 95% CI
Log of Age 3.06117 <.0001 21.35 (14.03, 32.48)
Log of Total Cholesterol 1.12370 <.0001 3.08 (2.05, 4.62)
Log of HDL Cholesterol -0.93263 <.0001 0.40 (0.30, 0.52)
Log of SBP if not treated 1.93303 <.0001 6.91 (3.91, 12.20)
Log of SBP if treated 1.99881 <.0001 7.38 (4.22, 12.92)
Smoking 0.65451 <.0001 1.92 (1.65, 2.24)
Diabetes 0.57367 <.0001 1.78 (1.43, 2.20)
 
Women* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.95012)
Variable Beta** p-value Hazard Ratio 95% CI
Log of Age 2.32888 <.0001 10.27 (5.65, 18.64)
Log of Total Cholesterol 1.20904 <.0001 3.35 (2.00, 5.62)
Log of HDL Cholesterol -0.70833 <.0001 0.49 (0.351, 0.691)
Log of SBP if not treated 2.76157 <.0001 15.82 (7.86, 31.87)
Log of SBP if treated 2.82263 <.0001 16.82 (8.46, 33.46)
Smoking 0.52873 <.0001 1.70 (1.40, 2.06)
Diabetes 0.69154 <.0001 2.00 (1.49, 2.67)
 

* The 10-year risk for women can be calculated as 1-0.95012exp(ΣßX - 26.1931) where ß is the regression coefficient and X is the level for each risk factor; the risk for men is given as 1-0.88936exp(ΣßX - 23.9802)
**Estimated regression coefficient

Simple Office-based non-laboratory Predictors of CVD Regression Coefficients and Hazard Ratios

Men* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.88431)
Variable Beta** p-value Hazard Ratio 95% CI
Log of Age 3.11296 <.0001 22.49 (14.80, 34.16)
Log of Body Mass Index 0.79277 <.0066 2.21 (1.25, 3.91)
Log of SBP if not treated 1.85508 <.0001 6.39 (3.61, 11.33)
Log of SBP if treated 1.92672 <.0001 6.87 (3.90, 12.08)
Smoking 0.70953 <.0001 2.03 (1.75, 2.37)
Diabetes 0.53160 <.0001 1.70 (1.37, 2.11)
 
Women* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.94833)
Variable Beta** p-value Hazard Ratio 95% CI
Log of Age 2.72107 <.0001 15.20 (8.59, 26.87)
Log of Body Mass Index 0.51125 <.0609 1.67 (0.98, 2.85)
Log of SBP if not treated 2.81291 <.0001 16.66 (8.27, 33.54)
Log of SBP if treated 2.88267 <.0001 17.86 (8.97, 35.57)
Smoking 0.61868 <.0001 1.86 (1.53, 2.25)
Diabetes 0.77763 <.0001 2.18 (1.63, 2.91)
 

* The 10-year risk for women can be calculated as 1-0.94833exp(ΣßX - 26.0145) where ß is the regression coefficient and X is the level for each risk factor; the risk for men is given as 1-0.88431exp(ΣßX - 23.9388)
**Estimated regression coefficient

General CVD Risk Prediction Using Lipids
Sex:
M   F
Age (years):
Systolic Blood Pressure (mmHg):
Treatment for Hypertension:
Yes   No
Current smoker:
Yes   No
Diabetes:
Yes   No
HDL:
Total Cholesterol:
Your Heart/Vascular Age: 0
10 Year Risk
Your risk
 
0%
 
0%
Normal
 
0%
Optimal
General CVD Risk Prediction Using BMI
Sex:
M   F
Age (years):
Systolic Blood Pressure (mmHg):
Treatment for Hypertension:
Yes     No
Current smoker:
Yes     No
Diabetes:
Yes     No
Body Mass Index:
Your Heart/Vascular Age: 0
10 Year Risk
Your risk
 
0%
 
0%
Normal
 
0%
Optimal