Coronary Heart Disease
(2-year risk) – Second Event

(based on D'Agostino, Russell MW, Huse DM et al. 'Primary and subsequent coronary risk appraisal: new results from the Framingham Study', American Heart Journal 2000)

Outcome
First Coronary Heart Disease

Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 4 years, 2-year risk prediction score sheets

Population of interest
Individuals free of all of the following CVDs before examination:

Predictors

Men: 2-year risk of first CHD event in individuals 35-74 years of age free of CVD at baseline

 
Age Points
35 - 39 0
40 - 44 1
45 - 49 3
50 - 54 4
55 - 59 6
60 - 64 7
65 - 69 9
70 - 74 10
 
HDL-C
Total-C 25 30 35 40 45 50 60 70 80
160 8 7 5 5 4 3 2 1 0
170 8 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 0
180 9 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1
190 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
200 9 8 7 6 5 5 3 2 1
210 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2
220 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
230 10 9 8 7 6 6 4 3 2
240 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3
250 11 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3
260 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
270 11 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 3
280 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4
290 12 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4
300 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4
 
 
Diabetes Cigs
No 0 No 0
Yes 3 Yes 4
 
SBP
if untreated if treated
<110 0 <110 0
110-124 1 110-114 1
125-144 2 115-124 2
145-164 3 125-134 3
165-184 4 135-144 4
185-214 5 145-154 5
≥215 6 155-215 6
≥215 6
 
 
Pts 2-yr
Probabilities
Pts 2-yr
Probabilities
Pts 2-yr
Probabilities
0 0% 14 1% 28 17%
2 0% 16 2% 30 24%
4 0% 18 3% 32 32%
6 0% 20 4% 34 43%
8 0% 22 6%
10 1% 24 9%
12 1% 26 12%
 

Women: 2-year risk of first CHD event in individuals 35-74 years of age free of CVD at baseline

If-not-Menpausal
Age Points
35 - 39 0
40 - 44 1
45 - 49 3
50 - 54 4
55 - 59 6
60 - 64 7
65 - 69 9
70 - 74 10
 
HDL-C
Total-C 25 30 35 40 45 50 60 70 80
160 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0
170 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 0
180 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 0
190 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1
200 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1
210 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1
220 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1
230 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 1
240 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2
250 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2
260 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2
270 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2
280 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2
290 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2
300 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3
 
If Menpausal
Age Points
35 - 49 17
50 - 74 16
 
 
Diabetes Cigs
No 0 No 0
Yes 3 Yes 2
 
SBP
if untreated if treated
<110 0 <114 0
110-114 1 115-124 2
115-124 2 125-134 3
125-134 3 135-144 4
135-154 4 145-154 5
155-164 5 155-164 6
165-184 6 165-194 7
185-194 7 195-214 8
195-214 8 215-234 9
215-234 9 ≥235 10
≥235 910
 
alcohol-oz/wk
0 - 4 0
6 - 40 -1
 
If-has-prevalent-menopause-use:
Pts 2-yr
Probabilities
Pts 2-yr
Probabilities
Pts 2-yr
Probabilities
0 0% 14 0% 28 3%
2 0% 16 0% 30 6%
4 0% 18 0% 32 11%
6 0% 20 0% 34 18%
8 0% 22 1% 36 31%
10 0% 24 1%
12 0% 26 2%
 
If-does-not-have-prevalent-menopause-use:
Pts 2-yr
Probabilities
Pts 2-yr
Probabilities
0 0% 14 2%
2 0% 16 3%
4 0% 18 5%
6 0% 20 9%
8 0% 22 16%
10 1% 24 27%
12 1% 26 43%
 

Weibull Regression coefficients for direct estimation of risk of first CHD event

 
Men Women
Variable Without triglycerides With triglycerides
Intercept 12.7868 20.405 20.9717
Age -0.0405 -0.062 -0.0621
Menopause - -3.824 -3.8522
Age x menopause - 0.0717 0.0726
In (total cholesterol/HDL) -0.9494 -0.89 -0.6256
In (SBP) -1.0163 -2.361 -2.2449
Antihypertensive therapy/SBP interaction* -0.0161 -0.01 -0.098
Diabetes -0.4412 -0.573 -0.5243
Smoker -0.6042 -0.404 -0.3777
In-(triglycerides) - - -0.2688
Alcohol(cz/wk) - 0.0461 0.0529
Extreme value scale parameter 0.7764 0.7333 0.7467
 

*given as antihypertensive therapy * [(200-sbp)(sbp-110)/100]