Stroke

(based on D'Agostino, Wolf, Belanger, Kannel 'Stroke Risk Profile: Adjustment for Antihypertensive Medication', Stroke 1994)

Outcome
Stroke

Duration of follow-up
10 years

Population of interest
Individuals aged 55 to 84 years, free of stroke at baseline

Predictors

Men: Probability of Stroke Within 10 Years

Points
0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
Age,y 54-56 57-59 60-62 63-65 66-68 69-72
Untreated SBP, mmHg 97-105 106-115 116-125 126-135 136-145 146-155
Treated SBP, mmHg 97-105 106-112 113-117 118-123 124-129 130-135
Diabetes No Yes
Cigs No Yes
CVD No Yes
AF No Yes
LVH No Yes
 
Points
+6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Age,y 73-75 76-78 79-81 82-84 85
Untreated SBP, mmHg 156-165 166-175 176-185 186-195 196-205
Treated SBP, mmHg 136-142 143-150 151-161 162-176 177-205
Diabetes
Cigs
CVD
AF
LVH
 
 
Points 10-Year
Probability, %
Points 10-Year
Probability, %
Points 10-Year
Probability, %
1 3 11 11 21 42
2 3 12 13 22 47
3 4 13 15 23 52
4 4 14 17 24 57
5 5 15 20 25 63
6 5 16 22 26 68
7 6 17 26 27 74
8 7 18 29 28 79
9 8 19 33 29 84
10 10 20 37 30 88
 
Variables were defined as follows: SBP, systolic blood pressure; Diabetes, history of diabetes; Cigs, smokes cigarettes; CVD (cardiovascular disease), history of myocardiai infarction, angina pectoris, coronary insufficiency, intermittent ciaudication, or congestive heart failure; AF, history of atrial fibrillation; LVH, left ventricular hypertrophy on electrocardiogram.

Women: Probability of Stroke Within 10 Years

Points
0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
Age,y 54-56 57-59 60-62 63-64 65-67 68-70
Untreated SBP, mmHg 95-106 107-118 119-130 131-143 144-155
Treated SBP, mmHg 95-106 107-113 114-119 120-125 126-131
Diabetes No Yes
Cigs No Yes
CVD No Yes
AF No
LVH No Yes Yes
 
Points
+6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Age,y 71-73 74-76 77-78 79-81 82-84
Untreated SBP, mmHg 156-167 168-180 181-192 193-204 205-216
Treated SBP, mmHg 132-139 140-148 149-160 161-204 205-216
Diabetes
Cigs
CVD
AF Yes
LVH
 
 
Points 10-Year
Probability, %
Points 10-Year
Probability, %
Points 10-Year
Probability, %
1 1 11 8 21 43
2 1 12 9 22 50
3 2 13 11 23 57
4 2 14 13 24 64
5 2 15 16 25 71
6 3 16 19 26 78
7 4 17 23 27 84
8 4 18 27
9 5 19 32
10 6 20 37