(based on Schnabel RB, Sullivan LM, Levy D, Pencina MJ, Massaro JM, D'Agostino RB, Sr., Newton-Cheh C, Yamamoto JF, Magnani JW, Tadros TM, Kannel WB, Wang TJ, Ellinor PT, Wolf PA, Vasan RS, Benjamin EJ. Development of a risk score for atrial fibrillation (Framingham Heart Study): a community-based cohort Lancet 2009;373:739-745.)
Outcome
First AF
Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 12 years, 10-year risk prediction score sheets
Population of interest
Participants free of AF at baseline, aged 45 to 95 years
Predictors
- Age
- Male sex
- Body mass index
- Systolic blood pressure
- Treatment for hypertension
- PR interval
- Significant murmur
- Prevalent heart failure
10-Year Risk of First AF in Individuals 45-95 Years of
Age Free of AF at Baseline
| Age, years |
Points for Women |
Points for Men |
| 45-49 |
-3 |
1 |
| 50-54 |
-2 |
2 |
| 55-59 |
0 |
3 |
| 60-64 |
1 |
4 |
| 65-69 |
3 |
5 |
| 70-74 |
4 |
6 |
| 75-79 |
6 |
7 |
| 80-84 |
7 |
7 |
| ≥85 |
8 |
8 |
Systolic Blood
Pressure, mm Hg |
Points |
| <160 |
0 |
| ≥160 |
1 |
Hypertension
Treatment |
Points |
| No |
0 |
| Yes |
1 |
Body Mass Index,
kg/m2 |
Points |
| <30 |
0 |
| ≥30 |
1 |
PR Interval,
milliseconds |
Points |
| <160 |
0 |
| 160-199 |
1 |
| ≥200 |
2 |
| Significant Murmur by Years of Age |
|---|
| Age |
Points |
| 45-54 |
5 |
| 55-64 |
4 |
| 65-74 |
2 |
| 75-84 |
1 |
| ≥85 |
0 |
| Heart Failure by Years of Age |
|---|
| Age |
Points |
| 45-54 |
10 |
| 55-64 |
6 |
| 65-74 |
2 |
| ≥75-84 |
0 |
| TOTAL Points and Risk Estimates |
| Total Points |
≤0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
≥10 |
| Risk, % |
≤1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
12 |
16 |
22 |
>30 |
Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Coefficients
for Direct Estimation of Risk of First AF Event |
| Variable |
β |
SE |
P |
| Age |
0.15052 |
0.05767 |
0.009 |
| Age2 |
-0.00038 |
0.00041 |
0.35 |
| Male sex |
1.99406 |
0.39326 |
0.0001 |
| Body mass index |
0.01930 |
0.01111 |
0.08 |
| Systolic blood pressure |
0.00615 |
0.00225 |
0.006 |
| Treatment for hypertension |
0.42410 |
0.10104 |
0.0001 |
| PR interval |
0.07065 |
0.01697 |
0.0001 |
| Significant murmur |
3.79586 |
1.33532 |
0.005 |
| Prevalent heart failure |
9.42833 |
2.26981 |
0.0001 |
| Male sex* age2 |
-0.00028 |
0.00008 |
0.0004 |
| Age* significant murmur |
-0.04238 |
0.01904 |
0.03 |
| Age* prevalent heart failure |
-0.12307 |
0.03345 |
0.0002 |
S0(10) = 0.96337 (10 year baseline survival)
Betas are given for 1 unit increase for continuous variables and for the condition present in dichotomous variables.
