(based on Wilson, Meigs, Sullivan, Fox, Nathan, D'Agostino. 'Prediction of Incident Diabetes Mellitus in Middle-aged Adults: The Framingham Offspring Study,' Archives of Internal Medicine 2007)
Outcome
Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (fasting blood glucose at or above 126 mg/dL)
Duration of follow-up
Average of 7-years, 8-year risk prediction
Population of interest
Individuals 45 to 64 years
Predictors
- Age categories
- Gender
- Fasting Glucose above 100 mg/dL
- BMI (Body Mass Index) categories
- HDL cholesterol categories
- Triglyceride above 150 mg/dL
- Blood Pressure categories
- Parental History of Diabetes
Logistic Regression Model with Coefficients
| Variable |
Beta* |
OR |
95% CI |
p-value |
| Intercept |
-5.517 |
|
|
|
| Age, y |
|
|
|
|
| <50 |
Referent |
|
| 50-64 |
-0.018 |
0.98 |
(0.64 - 1.50) |
0.93 |
| ≥65 |
-0.081 |
0.92 |
(0.54 - 1.59) |
0.77 |
| Male |
-0.010 |
0.99 |
(0.70 - 1.41) |
0.95 |
| Parental history of diabetes mellitus |
0.565 |
1.76 |
(1.17 - 2.64) |
0.006 |
| BMI |
|
|
|
|
| <25 |
Referent |
|
| 25.0-29.9 |
0.301 |
1.35 |
(0.78 - 2.34) |
0.28 |
| ≥30.0 |
0.92 |
2.50 |
(1.45 - 4.30) |
0.001 |
| Blood pressure >130/85mmHG or receiving therapy |
0.498 |
1.65 |
(1.10 - 2.46) |
0.02 |
| HDL-C level <40 mg/dL in men or <50 mg/dL in women |
0.944 |
2.57 |
(1.75 - 3.77) |
<.001 |
| Triglyceride level ≥150 mg/dL |
0.575 |
1.78 |
(1.22 - 2.59) |
0.003 |
| Fasting glucose level 100-126 mg/dL |
1.980 |
7.25 |
(4.89 - 10.74) |
<.001 |
*Conversion from beta coefficient to predicted probability of diabetes in 8 years
z = ß0 + ß1x1 + ß2x2 + ... + ßkxk
where z indicates regression equation with beta coefficients taken from table above (ß
0 as intercept) and x's indicating values of corresponding risk factor (0 or 1 for each category)
Point Designation based on predictors for 8-Year Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in Middle-aged Adults
|
Points |
| Fasting glucose level 100-126 mg/dL |
10 |
| BMI 25.0-29.9 |
2 |
| BMI >30.0 |
5 |
| HDL-C level <40 mg/dL in men or <50 mg/dL in women |
5 |
| Parental History of diabetes mellitus |
3 |
| Triglyceride level >150 mg/dL |
3 |
| Blood pressure >130/85 mmHG or receiving treatment |
2 |
Given Total Points from Previous Table, there is an APPROXIMATE Percentage Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in Middle-aged Adults
Total
Points | 8 Year
Risk, % |
| ≤10 |
<3 |
| 11 |
4 |
| 12 |
4 |
| 13 |
5 |
| 14 |
6 |
| 15 |
7 |
| 16 |
9 |
| 17 |
11 |
| 18 |
13 |
| 19 |
15 |
| 20 |
18 |
| 21 |
21 |
| 22 |
25 |
| 23 |
29 |
| 24 |
33 |
| ≥25 |
>35 |
