(based on D'Agostino, Vasan, Pencina, Wolf, Cobain, Massaro, Kannel. 'A General Cardiovascular Risk Profile for Use in Primary Care: The Framingham Heart Study')
Outcome
CVD (coronary death, myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, angina, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, transient ischemic attack, peripheral artery disease, heart failure)
Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 12 years, 10-year risk prediction
Population of interest
Individuals 30 to 74 years old and without CVD at the baseline examination
Predictors
- Age
- Diabetes
- Smoking
- Treated and untreated Systolic Blood Pressure
- Total cholesterol
- HDL cholesterol
- BMI replacing lipids in a simpler model
Regression Coefficients and Hazard Ratios - Primary Model
| Men* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.88936) |
| Variable |
Beta** |
p-value |
Hazard Ratio |
95% CI |
| Log of Age |
3.06117 |
<.0001 |
21.35 |
(14.03, 32.48) |
| Log of Total Cholesterol |
1.12370 |
<.0001 |
3.08 |
(2.05, 4.62) |
| Log of HDL Cholesterol |
-0.93263 |
<.0001 |
0.40 |
(0.30, 0.52) |
| Log of SBP if not treated |
1.93303 |
<.0001 |
6.91 |
(3.91, 12.20) |
| Log of SBP if treated |
1.99881 |
<.0001 |
7.38 |
(4.22, 12.92) |
| Smoking |
0.65451 |
<.0001 |
1.92 |
(1.65, 2.24) |
| Diabetes |
0.57367 |
<.0001 |
1.78 |
(1.43, 2.20) |
| Women* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.95012) |
| Variable |
Beta** |
p-value |
Hazard Ratio |
95% CI |
| Log of Age |
2.32888 |
<.0001 |
10.27 |
(5.65, 18.64) |
| Log of Total Cholesterol |
1.20904 |
<.0001 |
3.35 |
(2.00, 5.62) |
| Log of HDL Cholesterol |
-0.70833 |
<.0001 |
0.49 |
(0.351, 0.691) |
| Log of SBP if not treated |
2.76157 |
<.0001 |
15.82 |
(7.86, 31.87) |
| Log of SBP if treated |
2.82263 |
<.0001 |
16.82 |
(8.46, 33.46) |
| Smoking |
0.52873 |
<.0001 |
1.70 |
(1.40, 2.06) |
| Diabetes |
0.69154 |
<.0001 |
2.00 |
(1.49, 2.67) |
* The 10-year risk for women can be calculated as 1-0.95012exp(ΣßX - 26.1931) where ß is the regression coefficient and X is the level for each risk factor; the risk for men is given as 1-0.88936exp(ΣßX - 23.9802)
**Estimated regression coefficient
Simple Office-based non-laboratory Predictors of CVD
Regression Coefficients and Hazard Ratios
| Men* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.88431) |
| Variable |
Beta** |
p-value |
Hazard Ratio |
95% CI |
| Log of Age |
3.11296 |
<.0001 |
22.49 |
(14.80, 34.16) |
| Log of Body Mass Index |
0.79277 |
<.0066 |
2.21 |
(1.25, 3.91) |
| Log of SBP if not treated |
1.85508 |
<.0001 |
6.39 |
(3.61, 11.33) |
| Log of SBP if treated |
1.92672 |
<.0001 |
6.87 |
(3.90, 12.08) |
| Smoking |
0.70953 |
<.0001 |
2.03 |
(1.75, 2.37) |
| Diabetes |
0.53160 |
<.0001 |
1.70 |
(1.37, 2.11) |
| Women* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.94833) |
| Variable |
Beta** |
p-value |
Hazard Ratio |
95% CI |
| Log of Age |
2.72107 |
<.0001 |
15.20 |
(8.59, 26.87) |
| Log of Body Mass Index |
0.51125 |
<.0609 |
1.67 |
(0.98, 2.85) |
| Log of SBP if not treated |
2.81291 |
<.0001 |
16.66 |
(8.27, 33.54) |
| Log of SBP if treated |
2.88267 |
<.0001 |
17.86 |
(8.97, 35.57) |
| Smoking |
0.61868 |
<.0001 |
1.86 |
(1.53, 2.25) |
| Diabetes |
0.77763 |
<.0001 |
2.18 |
(1.63, 2.91) |
* The 10-year risk for women can be calculated as 1-0.94833exp(ΣßX - 26.0145) where ß is the regression coefficient and X is the level for each risk factor; the risk for men is given as 1-0.88431exp(ΣßX - 23.9388)
**Estimated regression coefficient
Risk Score Calculators
Interactive
Excel spreadsheets
