(based on The Adult Treatment Panel III, JAMA. 2001)
Outcome
Hard coronary heart disease (HCHD) (myocardial infarction or coronary death)
Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 12 years with risk calculated at 10 years
Population of interest
Individuals free of CHD, intermittent claudication and diabetes, 30-79 years of age
Predictors
- Age
- Total cholesterol
- HDL
- SBP
- Treatment for hypertension
- Smoking status
Estimate of 10-Year Risk for Men
Framingham
Point Scores |
| Age |
Points |
| 20 - 34 |
- 9 |
| 35 - 39 |
- 4 |
| 40 - 44 |
0 |
| 45 - 49 |
3 |
| 50 - 54 |
6 |
| 55 - 59 |
8 |
| 60 - 64 |
10 |
| 65 - 69 |
11 |
| 70 - 74 |
12 |
| 75 - 79 |
13 |
|
 |
| point by age |
| Total Cholesterol |
20 - 39 |
40 - 49 |
50 - 59 |
60 - 69 |
70 - 79 |
| < 160 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 160 - 199 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| 200 - 239 |
7 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
| 240 - 279 |
9 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
| ≥ 280 |
11 |
8 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
| Nonsmoker |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Smoker |
8 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
| HDL (mg/dL) |
Points |
| ≥ 60 |
- 1 |
| 50 - 59 |
0 |
| 40 - 49 |
1 |
| < 40 |
2 |
|
|
| Systolic BP (mmHg) |
if untreated |
if treated |
| < 120 |
0 |
0 |
| 120 - 129 |
0 |
1 |
| 130 - 139 |
1 |
2 |
| 140 - 159 |
1 |
2 |
| ≥ 160 |
2 |
3 |
|
| Point Total |
10-year risk |
| < 0 |
< 1 |
| 0 |
1 |
| 1 |
1 |
| 2 |
1 |
| 3 |
1 |
| 4 |
1 |
| 5 |
2 |
| 6 |
2 |
| 7 |
3 |
| 8 |
4 |
| 9 |
5 |
| 10 |
6 |
| 11 |
8 |
| 12 |
10 |
| 13 |
12 |
| 14 |
16 |
| 15 |
20 |
| 16 |
25 |
| ≥ 17 |
≥ 30 |
Estimate of 10-Year Risk for Women
Framingham
Point Scores |
| Age |
Points |
| 20 - 34 |
- 7 |
| 35 - 39 |
- 3 |
| 40 - 44 |
0 |
| 45 - 49 |
3 |
| 50 - 54 |
6 |
| 55 - 59 |
8 |
| 60 - 64 |
10 |
| 65 - 69 |
12 |
| 70 - 74 |
14 |
| 75 - 79 |
16 |
|
|
| point by age |
| Total Cholesterol |
20 - 39 |
40 - 49 |
50 - 59 |
60 - 69 |
70 - 79 |
| < 160 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 160 - 199 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
| 200 - 239 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
| 240 - 279 |
11 |
8 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
| ≥ 280 |
13 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
| Nonsmoker |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Smoker |
9 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
|
| HDL (mg/dL) |
Points |
| ≥ 60 |
- 1 |
| 50 - 59 |
0 |
| 40 - 49 |
1 |
| < 40 |
2 |
|
|
| Systolic BP (mmHg) |
if untreated |
if treated |
| < 120 |
0 |
0 |
| 120 - 129 |
1 |
3 |
| 130 - 139 |
2 |
4 |
| 140 - 159 |
3 |
5 |
| ≥ 160 |
4 |
6 |
|
| Point Total |
10-year risk |
| < 9 |
< 1 |
| 9 |
1 |
| 10 |
1 |
| 11 |
1 |
| 12 |
1 |
| 13 |
2 |
| 14 |
2 |
| 15 |
3 |
| 16 |
4 |
| 17 |
5 |
| 18 |
6 |
| 19 |
8 |
| 20 |
11 |
| 21 |
14 |
| 22 |
17 |
| 23 |
22 |
| 24 |
27 |
| ≥ 25 |
≥ 30 |
| HARD CHD FUNCTION |
| Outcome: Hard CHD |
| Gender |
MEN (n=4261) |
Gender |
WOMEN (n=5182) |
| Independent Variable |
Cox Parameter Coefficient |
Means | Independent Variable |
Cox Parameter Coefficient |
Means |
| Ln(AGE) |
52.009610 |
3.8926095 |
Ln(AGE) |
31.764001 |
3.9213204 |
| Ln(TOTAL) |
20.014077 |
5.3441475 |
Ln(TOTAL) |
22.465206 |
5.3628984 |
| Ln(HDL CHOL) |
-0.905964 |
3.7731132 |
Ln(HDL CHOL) |
-1.187731 |
4.0146369 |
| Ln(SBP) |
1.305784 |
4.8618212 |
Ln(SBP) |
2.552905 |
4.8376494 |
| TRT for HTN (SBP > 120) |
0.241549 |
0.1180474 |
TRT for HTN (SBP > 120) |
0.420251 |
0.1428020 |
| CURRENT SMOKER |
12.096316 |
0.3356020 |
CURRENT SMOKER |
13.075430 |
0.3236202 |
| Ln(AGE)*Ln(TOTAL) |
-4.605038 |
20.8111562 |
Ln(AGE)*Ln(TOTAL) |
-5.060998 |
21.0557746 |
| Ln(AGE)*SMOKER† |
-2.843670 |
1.2890301 |
Ln(AGE)*SMOKER‡ |
-2.996945 |
1.2519882 |
| Ln(AGE)*Ln(AGE) |
-2.933230 |
15.2144965 |
|
| Average 10 Year Survival = |
0.940200 |
Average 10 Year Survival = |
0.987670 |
† If Age > 70 then use Ln(70)*SMOKER
‡ If Age > 78 then use Ln(78)*SMOKER
NOTE: Age Range = 30 to 79
