Heart Failure Framingham Heart Study

(based on Parikh, Pencina, Wang, Benjamin, Lanier, Levy, D'Agostino, Kannel, Vasan. 'A Risk Score for Predicting Near-Term Incidence of Hypertension: The Framingham Heart Study', Annals of Internal Medicine 2008)

Outcome
Incidence of hypertension (systolic blood pressure above 140 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure above 90 mmHg or antihypertensive treatment)

Duration of follow-up
Average of 4-years; 1, 2 and 4-year risks

Population of interest
Non-hypertensive white individuals 20 to 69 years of age without diabetes at baseline

Predictors

Age
Male Sex
Blood Pressure (Systolic and Diastolic)
BMI (Body Mass Index)
Parental Hypertension
Smoking

Weibull Regression Model
(Scale = 0.87692, Intercept = 22.94954)‡

Variable	Beta**	p-value	Hazard Ratio	95% CI
Age	-0.15641	< 0.001	1.195	(1.089, 1.312)
Sex†	-0.20293	0.004	1.260	(1.091, 1.456)
SBP	-0.05933	< 0.001	1.070	(1.060, 1.080)
DBP	-0.12847	< 0.001	1.158	(1.087, 1.234)
Smoking	-0.19073	0.013	1.243	(1.058, 1.460)
Parental Hypertension*	-0.16612	0.014	1.209	(1.047, 1.395)
BMI	-0.03388	< 0.001	1.039	(1.025, 1.054)
Age times DBP interaction	0.00162	0.005	0.998	(0.997, 0.999)

‡The 4-year risk can be calculated as

1 – exp[ – exp(

ln(4) – [22.94954 + ∑ Xß

0.87692

)]

where ß is the regression coefficient and X is the level for each variable.
† Women (sex=1) vs. men (sex=0).
* Per category increment (1 parent or both parents) versus no parental hypertension as the reference category.
**Estimated regression coefficient.

Interactive Risk Score Calculator
Download an Excel spreadsheet version

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