(based on D’Agostino, Russell MW, Huse DM et al. ‘Primary and subsequent coronary risk appraisal: new results from the Framingham Study’, American Heart Journal 2000)
Outcome
Subsequent CHD (includes mostly hospitalized events consisting of myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, angina pectoris, and sudden and non-sudden coronary death)
Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 4 years, 2-year risk prediction
Population of interest
Individuals who had at least one CHD event or ischemic stroke before examination and survived the acute stage of that event.
Predictors
- Age
- Systolic blood pressure (SBP)
- Cigarette smoking status (1 if current smoker, 0 otherwise)
- Fasting lipid level (total and HDL cholesterol)
- Physician diagnosis of diabetes at the current or a previous examination
Men: 2-year risk of recurring CHD
| Age |
Points |
| 35 - 39 |
0 |
| 40 - 44 |
1 |
| 45 - 49 |
3 |
| 50 - 54 |
4 |
| 55 - 59 |
6 |
| 60 - 64 |
7 |
| 65 - 69 |
9 |
| 70 - 74 |
10 |
| HDL-C |
| Total-C |
25 |
30 |
35 |
40 |
45 |
50 |
60 |
70 |
80 |
| 160 |
10 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
| 170 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
| 180 |
11 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
| 190 |
12 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
| 200 |
12 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
| 210 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
| 220 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
| 230 |
13 |
12 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
| 240 |
14 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
| 250 |
14 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
| 260 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
| 270 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
| 280 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
| 290 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
| 300 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
|
|
 |
| Pts |
2-yr
Probabilities |
Pts |
2-yr
Probabilities |
Pts |
2-yr
Probabilities |
| 0 |
3% |
14 |
9% |
28 |
25% |
| 2 |
4% |
16 |
11% |
30 |
29% |
| 4 |
4% |
18 |
13% |
|
|
| 6 |
5% |
20 |
14% |
|
|
| 8 |
6% |
22 |
17% |
|
|
| 10 |
7% |
24 |
19% |
|
|
| 12 |
8% |
26 |
22% |
|
|
|
Women: 2-year risk of recurring CHD
| Age |
Points |
| 35 - 39 |
0 |
| 40 - 44 |
1 |
| 45 - 49 |
2 |
| 50 - 54 |
3 |
| 55 - 59 |
4 |
| 60 - 64 |
5 |
| 65 - 69 |
6 |
| 70 - 74 |
7 |
| HDL-C |
| Total-C |
25 |
30 |
35 |
40 |
45 |
50 |
60 |
70 |
80 |
| 160 |
10 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
| 170 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
| 180 |
11 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
| 190 |
12 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
| 200 |
12 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
| 210 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
| 220 |
13 |
12 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
| 230 |
14 |
12 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
| 240 |
14 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
| 250 |
14 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
| 260 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
9 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
| 270 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
| 280 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
| 290 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
10 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
5 |
| 300 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
| Diabetes |
Cigs |
| No |
0 |
No |
0 |
| Yes |
3 |
Yes |
4 |
|
|
| SBP |
| <110 |
0 |
| 110-114 |
1 |
| 115-124 |
3 |
| 125-134 |
4 |
| 135-144 |
5 |
| 145-154 |
6 |
| 155-164 |
7 |
| 165-184 |
8 |
| 185-194 |
9 |
| 195-214 |
10 |
| 215-224 |
11 |
| 225-244 |
12 |
| 245+ |
13 |
|
| Pts |
2-yr
Probabilities |
Pts |
2-yr
Probabilities |
Pts |
2-yr
Probabilities |
| 0 |
1% |
14 |
3% |
28 |
9% |
| 2 |
1% |
16 |
3% |
30 |
11% |
| 4 |
1% |
18 |
4% |
32 |
13% |
| 6 |
1% |
20 |
5% |
34 |
16% |
| 8 |
2% |
22 |
5% |
36 |
19% |
| 10 |
2% |
24 |
7% |
38 |
22% |
| 12 |
2% |
26 |
8% |
|
|
Weibull Regression coefficients for direct estimation of risk of subsequent CHD event
| Variable |
Men |
Women |
| Intercept |
4.995 |
13.537 |
| Age |
-0.0145 |
-0.0225 |
| In (total cholesterol/HDL) |
-0.6738 |
-0.834 |
| In (SBP) |
- |
-1.3713 |
| Diabetes |
-0.3042 |
-0.7829 |
| Smoker |
- |
-0.3669 |
| Extreme Value Parameter |
0.9994 |
1.0313 |
