(based on D'Agostino, Wolf, Belanger, Kannel 'Stroke Risk Profile: Adjustment for Antihypertensive Medication', Stroke 1994)
Outcome
Stroke
Duration of follow-up
10 years
Population of interest
Individuals aged 55 to 84 years, free of stroke at baseline
Predictors
- Age
- Systolic blood pressure
- Diabetes mellitus
- Cigarette smoking
- Prior cardiovascular disease
- Atrial fibrillation
- Left ventricular hypertrophy
- Use of hypertensive medication
Men: Probability of Stroke Within 10 Years
| Points |
|
0 |
+1 |
+2 |
+3 |
+4 |
+5 |
| Age,y |
54-56 |
57-59 |
60-62 |
63-65 |
66-68 |
69-72 |
| Untreated SBP, mmHg |
97-105 |
106-115 |
116-125 |
126-135 |
136-145 |
146-155 |
| Treated SBP, mmHg |
97-105 |
106-112 |
113-117 |
118-123 |
124-129 |
130-135 |
| Diabetes |
No |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
| Cigs |
No |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
| CVD |
No |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
| AF |
No |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
| LVH |
No |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
| Points |
|
+6 |
+7 |
+8 |
+9 |
+10 |
| Age,y |
73-75 |
76-78 |
79-81 |
82-84 |
85 |
| Untreated SBP, mmHg |
156-165 |
166-175 |
176-185 |
186-195 |
196-205 |
| Treated SBP, mmHg |
136-142 |
143-150 |
151-161 |
162-176 |
177-205 |
| Diabetes |
|
|
|
|
|
| Cigs |
|
|
|
|
|
| CVD |
|
|
|
|
|
| AF |
|
|
|
|
|
| LVH |
|
|
|
|
|
| Points |
10-Year Probability, % |
Points |
10-Year Probability, % |
Points |
10-Year Probability, % |
| 1 |
3 |
11 |
11 |
21 |
42 |
| 2 |
3 |
12 |
13 |
22 |
47 |
| 3 |
4 |
13 |
15 |
23 |
52 |
| 4 |
4 |
14 |
17 |
24 |
57 |
| 5 |
5 |
15 |
20 |
25 |
63 |
| 6 |
5 |
16 |
22 |
26 |
68 |
| 7 |
6 |
17 |
26 |
27 |
74 |
| 8 |
7 |
18 |
29 |
28 |
79 |
| 9 |
8 |
19 |
33 |
29 |
84 |
| 10 |
10 |
20 |
37 |
30 |
88 |
Variables were defined as follows: SBP, systolic blood pressure; Diabetes, history of diabetes; Cigs, smokes cigarettes; CVD (cardiovascular disease), history of myocardiai infarction, angina pectoris, coronary insufficiency, intermittent ciaudication, or congestive heart failure; AF, history of atrial fibrillation; LVH, left ventricular hypertrophy on electrocardiogram.
Women: Probability of Stroke Within 10 Years
| Points |
|
0 |
+1 |
+2 |
+3 |
+4 |
+5 |
| Age,y |
54-56 |
57-59 |
60-62 |
63-64 |
65-67 |
68-70 |
| Untreated SBP, mmHg |
|
95-106 |
107-118 |
119-130 |
131-143 |
144-155 |
| Treated SBP, mmHg |
|
95-106 |
107-113 |
114-119 |
120-125 |
126-131 |
| Diabetes |
No |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
| Cigs |
No |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
| CVD |
No |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
| AF |
No |
|
|
|
|
|
| LVH |
No |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
| Points |
|
+6 |
+7 |
+8 |
+9 |
+10 |
| Age,y |
71-73 |
74-76 |
77-78 |
79-81 |
82-84 |
| Untreated SBP, mmHg |
156-167 |
168-180 |
181-192 |
193-204 |
205-216 |
| Treated SBP, mmHg |
132-139 |
140-148 |
149-160 |
161-204 |
205-216 |
| Diabetes |
|
|
|
|
|
| Cigs |
|
|
|
|
|
| CVD |
|
|
|
|
|
| AF |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
| LVH |
|
|
|
|
|
| Points |
10-Year Probability, % |
Points |
10-Year Probability, % |
Points |
10-Year Probability, % |
| 1 |
1 |
11 |
8 |
21 |
43 |
| 2 |
1 |
12 |
9 |
22 |
50 |
| 3 |
2 |
13 |
11 |
23 |
57 |
| 4 |
2 |
14 |
13 |
24 |
64 |
| 5 |
2 |
15 |
16 |
25 |
71 |
| 6 |
3 |
16 |
19 |
26 |
78 |
| 7 |
4 |
17 |
23 |
27 |
84 |
| 8 |
4 |
18 |
27 |
|
|
| 9 |
5 |
19 |
32 |
|
|
| 10 |
6 |
20 |
37 |
|
|
|
