Stroke After Atrial Fibrillation Framingham Heart Study

(based on Wang, Massaro, Levy et al. 'A Risk Score for Predicting Stroke or Death in Individuals with New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in the Community', JAMA 2003)

Outcome
Stroke

Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 10 years; mean 4 years; 5-year risk estimated

Population of interest
705 individuals aged 55 - 94 years from the Original and Offspring Cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study meeting the following criteria:

had an occurrence of new-onset Atrial Fibrillation (AF)
not treated with warfarin at baseline
did not have a stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), or death within 30 days of AF diagnosis
without rheumatic mitral stenosis

Predictors

Age
Gender
Systolic blood pressure
Diabetes
Prior stroke or ischemic attack

Score Sheet

Step 1
Age, y	Points
55-59	0
60-62	1
63-66	2
67-71	3
72-74	4
75-77	5
78-81	6
82-85	7
86-90	8
91-93	9
>93	10

Step 2
Sex	Points
Men	0
Women	6

Step 3
Systolic Blood Pressure, mm Hg	Points
<120	0
120-139	1
140-159	2
160-179	3
>179	4

Step 4
Diabetes	Points
No	0
Yes	5

Step 5
Prior Stroke or TIA	Points
No	0
Yes	6

Step 6

Add Up Points From Steps 1 Through 5
Look Up Predicted 5-Year Risk of Stroke in Table

Predicted 5-year Risk of Stroke or Death
Total Points	5-Year Risk, %
0-1	5
2-3	6
4	7
5	8
6-7	9
8	11
9	12
10	13
11	14
12	16
13	18
14	19
15	21
16	24
17	26
18	28
19	31
20	34
21	37
22	41
23	44
24	48
25	51
26	55
27	59
28	63
29	67
30	71
31	75

Means and Cox Regression Coefficients
Variables	Cox Regression Coefficient	Risk Factor Mean
Sex (1=Men, 2=Women)	0.650715	1.48
Age, per y	0.029065	75
Systolic Blood Pressure, per mmHg	0.006130	146
Diabetes Mellitus	0.589268	0.15
Prior Stroke/TIA	0.631572	0.14
Baseline Survival at 5 years, S₀(5)	0.857100	---

Interactive Risk Score Calculator
Download an Excel spreadsheet version

Directions | Contact Info | Site Map