Diabetes

(based on Wilson, Meigs, Sullivan, Fox, Nathan, D'Agostino. 'Prediction of Incident Diabetes Mellitus in Middle-aged Adults: The Framingham Offspring Study,' Archives of Internal Medicine 2007)

Outcome
Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (fasting blood glucose at or above 126 mg/dL)

Duration of follow-up
Average of 7-years, 8-year risk prediction

Population of interest
Individuals 45 to 64 years

Predictors

Risk Score Calculator

Interactive

Logistic Regression Model with Coefficients

 
Variable Beta* OR 95% CI p-value
Intercept -5.517
Age, y
<50 Referent
50-64 -0.018 0.98 (0.64 - 1.50) 0.93
≥65 -0.081 0.92 (0.54 - 1.59) 0.77
Male -0.010 0.99 (0.70 - 1.41) 0.95
Parental history of diabetes mellitus 0.565 1.76 (1.17 - 2.64) 0.006
BMI
<25 Referent
25.0-29.9 0.301 1.35 (0.78 - 2.34) 0.28
≥30.0 0.92 2.50 (1.45 - 4.30) 0.001
Blood pressure >130/85mmHG or receiving therapy 0.498 1.65 (1.10 - 2.46) 0.02
HDL-C level <40 mg/dL in men or <50 mg/dL in women 0.944 2.57 (1.75 - 3.77) <.001
Triglyceride level ≥150 mg/dL 0.575 1.78 (1.22 - 2.59) 0.003
Fasting glucose level 100-126 mg/dL 1.980 7.25 (4.89 - 10.74) <.001
 

*Conversion from beta coefficient to predicted probability of diabetes in 8 years

p = 
1
1+e -z

z = ß0 + ß1x1 + ß2x2 + ... + ßkxk
where z indicates regression equation with beta coefficients taken from table above (ß0 as intercept) and x's indicating values of corresponding risk factor (0 or 1 for each category)

Point Designation based on predictors for 8-Year Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in Middle-aged Adults

 
Points
Fasting glucose level 100-126 mg/dL 10
BMI 25.0-29.9 2
BMI >30.0 5
HDL-C level <40 mg/dL in men or <50 mg/dL in women 5
Parental History of diabetes mellitus 3
Triglyceride level >150 mg/dL 3
Blood pressure >130/85 mmHG or receiving treatment 2
 

Given Total Points from Previous Table, there is an APPROXIMATE Percentage Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in Middle-aged Adults

 
Total Points 8 Year Risk, %
≤10 <3
11 4
12 4
13 5
14 6
15 7
16 9
17 11
18 13
19 15
20 18
21 21
22 25
23 29
24 33
≥25 >35
 
Diabetes Risk Calculator
Gender:
M   F
Age (years):
Systolic Blood Pressure (mmHg):
Diastolic Blood Pressure (mmHg):
Treatment for Hypertension:
Yes   No
Height (inches):
Weight (pounds):
Your BMI: 0
HDL-C Level (mg/dL):
Triglyceride Level (mg/dL):
Fasting Glucose Level (mg/dL):
Parental Diabetes:
Yes  No
8 Year Risk
 
0%