Hard Coronary Heart Disease (10-year risk)

Hard Coronary Heart Disease
(10-year risk)

Based on
The Adult Treatment Panel III, JAMA. 2001

Outcome
Hard coronary heart disease (HCHD) (myocardial infarction or coronary death)

Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 12 years with risk calculated at 10 years

Population of interest
Individuals free of CHD, intermittent claudication and diabetes, 30-79 years of age

Predictors

  • Age
  • Total cholesterol
  • HDL
  • SBP
  • Treatment for hypertension
  • Smoking status

Evidence Review

Estimate of 10-Year Risk for Men

Framingham Point Scores
Age Points
20 – 34 – 9
35 – 39 – 4
40 – 44 0
45 – 49 3
50 – 54 6
55 – 59 8
60 – 64 10
65 – 69 11
70 – 74 12
75 – 79 13
point by age
Total Cholesterol 20 – 39 40 – 49 50 – 59 60 – 69 70 – 79
< 160 0 0 0 0 0
160 – 199 4 3 2 1 0
200 – 239 7 5 3 1 0
240 – 279 9 6 4 2 1
≥ 280 11 8 5 3 1
Nonsmoker 0 0 0 0 0
Smoker 8 5 3 1 1
HDL (mg/dL) Points
≥ 60 – 1
50 – 59 0
40 – 49 1
< 40 2
Systolic BP (mmHg) if untreated if treated
< 120 0 0
120 – 129 0 1
130 – 139 1 2
140 – 159 1 2
≥ 160 2 3
Point Total 10-year risk
< 0 < 1
0 1
1 1
2 1
3 1
4 1
5 2
6 2
7 3
8 4
9 5
10 6
11 8
12 10
13 12
14 16
15 20
16 25
≥ 17 ≥ 30

Estimate of 10-Year Risk for Women

Framingham Point Scores
Age Points
20 – 34 – 7
35 – 39 – 3
40 – 44 0
45 – 49 3
50 – 54 6
55 – 59 8
60 – 64 10
65 – 69 12
70 – 74 14
75 – 79 16
point by age
Total Cholesterol 20 – 39 40 – 49 50 – 59 60 – 69 70 – 79
< 160 0 0 0 0 0
160 – 199 4 3 2 1 1
200 – 239 8 6 4 2 1
240 – 279 11 8 5 3 2
≥ 280 13 10 7 4 2
Nonsmoker 0 0 0 0 0
Smoker 9 7 4 2 1
HDL (mg/dL) Points
≥ 60 – 1
50 – 59 0
40 – 49 1
< 40 2
Systolic BP (mmHg) if untreated if treated
< 120 0 0
120 – 129 1 3
130 – 139 2 4
140 – 159 3 5
≥ 160 4 6
Point Total 10-year risk
< 9 < 1
9 1
10 1
11 1
12 1
13 2
14 2
15 3
16 4
17 5
18 6
19 8
20 11
21 14
22 17
23 22
24 27
≥ 25 ≥ 30
HARD CHD FUNCTION
Outcome: Hard CHD
Gender MEN (n=4261) Gender WOMEN (n=5182)
Independent
Variable		 Cox Parameter Coefficient Means Independent
Variable		 Cox Parameter Coefficient Means
Ln(AGE) 52.009610 3.8926095 Ln(AGE) 31.764001 3.9213204
Ln(TOTAL) 20.014077 5.3441475 Ln(TOTAL) 22.465206 5.3628984
Ln(HDL CHOL) -0.905964 3.7731132 Ln(HDL CHOL) -1.187731 4.0146369
Ln(SBP) 1.305784 4.8618212 Ln(SBP) 2.552905 4.8376494
TRT for HTN (SBP > 120) 0.241549 0.1180474 TRT for HTN (SBP > 120) 0.420251 0.1428020
CURRENT SMOKER 12.096316 0.3356020 CURRENT SMOKER 13.075430 0.3236202
Ln(AGE)*Ln(TOTAL) -4.605038 20.8111562 Ln(AGE)*Ln(TOTAL) -5.060998 21.0557746
Ln(AGE)*SMOKER† -2.843670 1.2890301 Ln(AGE)*SMOKER‡ -2.996945 1.2519882
Ln(AGE)*Ln(AGE) -2.933230 15.2144965
Average 10 Year Survival = 0.940200 Average 10 Year Survival = 0.987670

† If Age > 70 then use Ln(70)*SMOKER

‡ If Age > 78 then use Ln(78)*SMOKER

NOTE: Age Range = 30 to 79