Recurrent Coronary Heart Disease
Recurrent Coronary Heart Disease
Outcome
Subsequent CHD (includes mostly hospitalized events consisting of myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, angina pectoris, and sudden and non-sudden coronary death)
Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 4 years, 2-year risk prediction
Population of interest
Individuals who had at least one CHD event or ischemic stroke before examination and survived the acute stage of that event.
Predictors
- Age
- Systolic blood pressure (SBP)
- Cigarette smoking status (1 if current smoker, 0 otherwise)
- Fasting lipid level (total and HDL cholesterol)
- Physician diagnosis of diabetes at the current or a previous examination
Men: 2-year risk of recurring CHD
Age | Points |
35 – 39 | 0 |
40 – 44 | 1 |
45 – 49 | 3 |
50 – 54 | 4 |
55 – 59 | 6 |
60 – 64 | 7 |
65 – 69 | 9 |
70 – 74 | 10 |
HDL-C | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total-C | 25 | 30 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 |
160 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
170 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
180 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
190 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
200 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
210 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
220 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
230 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
240 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
250 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
260 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
270 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
280 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
290 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
300 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
Diabetes | |
No | 0 |
Yes | 4 |
Pts | 2-yr Probabilities |
Pts | 2-yr Probabilities |
Pts | 2-yr Probabilities |
0 | 3% | 14 | 9% | 28 | 25% |
2 | 4% | 16 | 11% | 30 | 29% |
4 | 4% | 18 | 13% | ||
6 | 5% | 20 | 14% | ||
8 | 6% | 22 | 17% | ||
10 | 7% | 24 | 19% | ||
12 | 8% | 26 | 22% |
Women: 2-year risk of recurring CHD
Age | Points |
35 – 39 | 0 |
40 – 44 | 1 |
45 – 49 | 2 |
50 – 54 | 3 |
55 – 59 | 4 |
60 – 64 | 5 |
65 – 69 | 6 |
70 – 74 | 7 |
HDL-C | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total-C | 25 | 30 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 |
160 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
170 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
180 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
190 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
200 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
210 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
220 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
230 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
240 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
250 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
260 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
270 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
280 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
290 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
300 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
Diabetes | Cigs | ||
No | 0 | No | 0 |
Yes | 3 | Yes | 4 |
SBP | |
---|---|
<110 | 0 |
110-114 | 1 |
115-124 | 3 |
125-134 | 4 |
135-144 | 5 |
145-154 | 6 |
155-164 | 7 |
165-184 | 8 |
185-194 | 9 |
195-214 | 10 |
215-224 | 11 |
225-244 | 12 |
245+ | 13 |
Pts | 2-yr Probabilities |
Pts | 2-yr Probabilities |
Pts | 2-yr Probabilities |
0 | 1% | 14 | 3% | 28 | 9% |
2 | 1% | 16 | 3% | 30 | 11% |
4 | 1% | 18 | 4% | 32 | 13% |
6 | 1% | 20 | 5% | 34 | 16% |
8 | 2% | 22 | 5% | 36 | 19% |
10 | 2% | 24 | 7% | 38 | 22% |
12 | 2% | 26 | 8% |
Weibull Regression coefficients for direct estimation of risk of subsequent CHD event
Variable | Men | Women |
Intercept | 4.995 | 13.537 |
Age | -0.0145 | -0.0225 |
In (total cholesterol/HDL) | -0.6738 | -0.834 |
In (SBP) | – | -1.3713 |
Diabetes | -0.3042 | -0.7829 |
Smoker | – | -0.3669 |
Extreme Value Parameter | 0.9994 | 1.0313 |