Stroke

Based on
D’Agostino RB, Wolf PA, Belanger AJ, Kannel WB. Stroke risk profile: adjustment for antihypertensive medication. The Framingham Study. Stroke. 1994 Jan;25(1):40-3. PMID:8266381.

Outcome
Stroke

Duration of follow-up
10 years

Population of interest
Individuals aged 55 to 84 years, free of stroke at baseline

Predictors

Age
Systolic blood pressure
Diabetes mellitus
Cigarette smoking
Prior cardiovascular disease
Atrial fibrillation
Left ventricular hypertrophy
Use of hypertensive medication

Men: Probability of Stroke Within 10 Years

Points
	0	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5
Age,y	54-56	57-59	60-62	63-65	66-68	69-72
Untreated SBP, mmHg	97-105	106-115	116-125	126-135	136-145	146-155
Treated SBP, mmHg	97-105	106-112	113-117	118-123	124-129	130-135
Diabetes	No		Yes
Cigs	No			Yes
CVD	No				Yes
AF	No				Yes
LVH	No					Yes

Points
	+6	+7	+8	+9	+10
Age,y	73-75	76-78	79-81	82-84	85
Untreated SBP, mmHg	156-165	166-175	176-185	186-195	196-205
Treated SBP, mmHg	136-142	143-150	151-161	162-176	177-205
Diabetes
Cigs
CVD
AF
LVH

Points	10-Year Probability, %	Points	10-Year Probability, %	Points	10-Year Probability, %
1	3	11	11	21	42
2	3	12	13	22	47
3	4	13	15	23	52
4	4	14	17	24	57
5	5	15	20	25	63
6	5	16	22	26	68
7	6	17	26	27	74
8	7	18	29	28	79
9	8	19	33	29	84
10	10	20	37	30	88

Variables were defined as follows: SBP, systolic blood pressure; Diabetes, history of diabetes; Cigs, smokes cigarettes; CVD (cardiovascular disease), history of myocardiai infarction, angina pectoris, coronary insufficiency, intermittent ciaudication, or congestive heart failure; AF, history of atrial fibrillation; LVH, left ventricular hypertrophy on electrocardiogram.

Women: Probability of Stroke Within 10 Years

Points
	0	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5
Age,y	54-56	57-59	60-62	63-64	65-67	68-70
Untreated SBP, mmHg		95-106	107-118	119-130	131-143	144-155
Treated SBP, mmHg		95-106	107-113	114-119	120-125	126-131
Diabetes	No			Yes
Cigs	No			Yes
CVD	No		Yes
AF	No
LVH	No				Yes	Yes

Points
	+6	+7	+8	+9	+10
Age,y	71-73	74-76	77-78	79-81	82-84
Untreated SBP, mmHg	156-167	168-180	181-192	193-204	205-216
Treated SBP, mmHg	132-139	140-148	149-160	161-204	205-216
Diabetes
Cigs
CVD
AF	Yes
LVH

Points	10-Year Probability, %	Points	10-Year Probability, %	Points	10-Year Probability, %
1	1	11	8	21	43
2	1	12	9	22	50
3	2	13	11	23	57
4	2	14	13	24	64
5	2	15	16	25	71
6	3	16	19	26	78
7	4	17	23	27	84
8	4	18	27
9	5	19	32
10	6	20	37