Atrial Fibrillation 10 year Risk

Framingham Heart Study AF score (10-year risk)

Based on
Schnabel RB, Sullivan LM, Levy D, Pencina MJ, Massaro JM, D’Agostino RB, Sr., Newton-Cheh C, Yamamoto JF, Magnani JW, Tadros TM, Kannel WB, Wang TJ, Ellinor PT, Wolf PA, Vasan RS, Benjamin EJ. Development of a risk score for atrial fibrillation (Framingham Heart Study): A community-based cohort study. Lancet. 2009;373:739-745. PMCID:2764235.

Outcome
First AF

Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 12 years, 10-year risk prediction score sheets

Population of interest
Participants free of AF at baseline, aged 45 to 95 years

Predictors

  • Age
  • Male sex
  • Body mass index
  • Systolic blood pressure
  • Treatment for hypertension
  • PR interval
  • Significant murmur
  • Prevalent heart failure

Excel spreadsheet

10-Year Risk of First AF in Individuals 45-95 Years of Age Free of AF at Baseline

Age, years Points for Women Points for Men
45-49 -3 1
50-54 -2 2
55-59 0 3
60-64 1 4
65-69 3 5
70-74 4 6
75-79 6 7
80-84 7 7
≥85 8 8
Systolic Blood Pressure, mm Hg Points
<160 0
≥160 1
Hypertension Treatment Points
No 0
Yes 1
Body Mass Index, kg/m2 Points
<30 0
≥30 1
PR Interval, milliseconds Points
<160 0
160-199 1
≥200 2
Significant Murmur by Years of Age
Age Points
45-54 5
55-64 4
65-74 2
75-84 1
≥85 0
Heart Failure by Years of Age
Age Points
45-54 10
55-64 6
65-74 2
≥75-84 0
TOTAL Points and Risk Estimates
Total Points ≤0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ≥10
Risk, % ≤1 2 2 3 4 6 8 12 16 22 >30
Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Coefficients
for Direct Estimation of Risk of First AF Event
Variable β SE P
Age 0.15052 0.05767 0.009
Age2 -0.00038 0.00041 0.35
Male sex 1.99406 0.39326 0.0001
Body mass index 0.01930 0.01111 0.08
Systolic blood pressure 0.00615 0.00225 0.006
Treatment for hypertension 0.42410 0.10104 0.0001
PR interval 0.07065 0.01697 0.0001
Significant murmur 3.79586 1.33532 0.005
Prevalent heart failure 9.42833 2.26981 0.0001
Male sex* age2 -0.00028 0.00008 0.0004
Age* significant murmur -0.04238 0.01904 0.03
Age* prevalent heart failure -0.12307 0.03345 0.0002

S0(10) = 0.96337 (10 year baseline survival)
Betas are given for 1 unit increase for continuous variables and for the condition present in dichotomous variables.

Atrial Fibrillation Calculator

Gender:
M   F
Age (years):
Height (inches):
Weight (pounds):
Systolic Blood Pressure (mmHg):
PR Interval (mSec):
Treatment for Hypertension:
Yes   No
Significant Murmur:
Yes   No
Prevalent Heart Failure:
Yes   No

Atrial Fibrillation Risk

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Your risk
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