Hypertension

Hypertension

Based on
Parikh NI, Pencina MJ, Wang TJ, Benjamin EJ, Lanier KJ, Levy D, D’Agostino RB, Kannel WB, Vasan RS. A risk score for predicting near-term incidence of hypertension: the Framingham Heart Study. Annals of internal medicine. 2008 Jan 15;148(2):102-10. PMID:18195335.

Outcome
Incidence of hypertension (systolic blood pressure above 140 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure above 90 mmHg or antihypertensive treatment)

Duration of follow-up
Average of 4-years; 1, 2 and 4-year risks

Population of interest
Non-hypertensive white individuals 20 to 69 years of age without diabetes at baseline

Predictors

  • Age
  • Male Sex
  • Blood Pressure (Systolic and Diastolic)
  • BMI (Body Mass Index)
  • Parental Hypertension
  • Smoking

Excel spreadsheet

Weibull Regression Model

(Scale = 0.87692, Intercept = 22.94954)‡

Variable Beta** p-value Hazard Ratio 95% CI
Age -0.15641 < 0.001 1.195 (1.089, 1.312)
Sex† -0.20293 0.004 1.260 (1.091, 1.456)
SBP -0.05933 < 0.001 1.070 (1.060, 1.080)
DBP -0.12847 < 0.001 1.158 (1.087, 1.234)
Smoking -0.19073 0.013 1.243 (1.058, 1.460)
Parental Hypertension* -0.16612 0.014 1.209 (1.047, 1.395)
BMI -0.03388 < 0.001 1.039 (1.025, 1.054)
Age times DBP interaction 0.00162 0.005 0.998 (0.997, 0.999)

‡The 4-year risk can be calculated as

1 – exp[ – exp(
ln(4) – [22.94954 + ∑ Xß
0.87692
)]

where ß is the regression coefficient and X is the level for each variable.
† Women (sex=1) vs. men (sex=0).
* Per category increment (1 parent or both parents) versus no parental hypertension as the reference category.
**Estimated regression coefficient.

Hypertension Risk Calculator

Gender:
M   F
Age (years):
Systolic Blood Pressure (mmHg):
Diastolic Blood Pressure (mmHg):
Height (inches):
Weight (pounds):
Your BMI: 0
Current smoker:
Yes   No
Parental Hypertension:
None   One   Both

1 Year Risk

Your risk
0%
0%
Optimal

 

2 Year Risk

0%
Your risk
0%
Optimal

 

4 Year Risk

0%
Your risk
0%
Optimal