Heart Failure in Atrial Fibrillation (10-year risk)

Heart Failure in Atrial Fibrillation
(10-year risk)

Based on
Schnabel RB, Rienstra M, Sullivan LM, Sun JX, Moser CB, Levy D, Pencina MJ, Fontes JD, Magnani JW, McManus DD, Lubitz SA, Tadros TM, Wang TJ, Ellinor PT, Vasan RS, Benjamin EJ. Risk assessment for incident heart failure in individuals with atrial fibrillation. Eur J Heart Fail. 2013;15:843-849. PMID:23594831. PMCID:3858114.

Outcome
First heart failure in atrial fibrillation

Duration of follow-up
10-year risk prediction algorithm

Population of interest
Participants with manifest atrial fibrillation free of heart failure at baseline, aged 39 to 96 years

Predictors

  • Age
  • Body mass index
  • Left ventricular hypertrophy
  • Diabetes
  • Significant murmur
  • Prevalent myocardial infarction

Excel spreadsheet

Risk Score Calculators

Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Coefficients for Direct Estimation of Risk of Heart Failure

Variable β SE P
Age 0.063 0.011 <0.001
Body mass index 0.062 0.016 <0.001
Left ventricular hypertrophy 0.708 0.227 0.002
Diabetes 0.632 0.186 0.001
Significant murmur 0.607 0.224 0.007
Prevalent myocardial infarction 3.589 1.430 0.01
Age*Prevalent myocardial infarction -0.039 0.019 0.048

S0(10) = 0.96337 (10 year baseline survival)
Betas are given for 1 unit increase for continuous variables and for the condition present in dichotomous variables.