Stroke or Death after Atrial Fibrillation
Stroke after Atrial Fibrillation
Outcome
Stroke
Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 10 years; mean 4 years; 5-year risk estimated
Population of interest
705 individuals aged 55 – 94 years from the Original and Offspring Cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study meeting the following criteria:
- had an occurrence of new-onset Atrial Fibrillation (AF)
- not treated with warfarin at baseline
- did not have a stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), or death within 30 days of AF diagnosis
- without rheumatic mitral stenosis
Predictors
- Age
- Gender
- Systolic blood pressure
- Diabetes
- Prior stroke or ischemic attack
Excel spreadsheet
Score Sheet
Step 1 | |
---|---|
Age, y | Points |
55-59 | 0 |
60-62 | 1 |
63-66 | 2 |
67-71 | 3 |
72-74 | 4 |
75-77 | 5 |
78-81 | 6 |
82-85 | 7 |
86-90 | 8 |
91-93 | 9 |
>93 | 10 |
Step 2 | |
---|---|
Sex | Points |
Men | 0 |
Women | 6 |
Step 3 | |
---|---|
Systolic Blood Pressure, mm Hg |
Points |
<120 | 0 |
120-139 | 1 |
140-159 | 2 |
160-179 | 3 |
>179 | 4 |
Step 4 | |
---|---|
Diabetes | Points |
No | 0 |
Yes | 5 |
Step 5 | |
---|---|
Prior Stroke or TIA | Points |
No | 0 |
Yes | 6 |
Step 6
Add Up Points From Steps 1 Through 5
Look Up Predicted 5-Year Risk of Stroke in Table
Predicted 5-year Risk of Stroke or Death | |
---|---|
Total Points | 5-Year Risk, % |
0-1 | 5 |
2-3 | 6 |
4 | 7 |
5 | 8 |
6-7 | 9 |
8 | 11 |
9 | 12 |
10 | 13 |
11 | 14 |
12 | 16 |
13 | 18 |
14 | 19 |
15 | 21 |
16 | 24 |
17 | 26 |
18 | 28 |
19 | 31 |
20 | 34 |
21 | 37 |
22 | 41 |
23 | 44 |
24 | 48 |
25 | 51 |
26 | 55 |
27 | 59 |
28 | 63 |
29 | 67 |
30 | 71 |
31 | 75 |
Means and Cox Regression Coefficients | ||
---|---|---|
Variables | Cox Regression Coefficient | Risk Factor Mean |
Sex (1=Men, 2=Women) | 0.650715 | 1.48 |
Age, per y | 0.029065 | 75 |
Systolic Blood Pressure, per mmHg | 0.006130 | 146 |
Diabetes Mellitus | 0.589268 | 0.15 |
Prior Stroke/TIA | 0.631572 | 0.14 |
Baseline Survival at 5 years, S0(5) | 0.857100 | — |
Risk Stroke Calculator