# Cardiovascular Disease (10-year risk)

## Cardiovascular Disease (10-year risk)

### Recommended: 2018 ACSVD 10-year Risk Calculator

**The Framingham Heart Study recommends the 2018 Prevention Guidelines Tool CV Risk Calculator to calculate to estimate 10-year and lifetime risks for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). **This 2018 calculator has been provided by the American Heart Association and the American College of Cardiology. The Risk Calculator enables health care providers and patients to estimate 10-year and lifetime risks for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), defined as coronary death or nonfatal myocardial infarction, or fatal or nonfatal stroke, based on the Pooled Cohort Equations and the work of Lloyd-Jones, et al., respectively. The information required to estimate ASCVD risk includes age, sex, race, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, blood pressure lowering medication use, diabetes status, and smoking status.

Find the ASCVD Calculator online here: 2018 Prevention Guidelines Tool CV Risk Calculator

Find Guidelines and supplemental materials here: AHA and ACC 2013 Prevention Guideline Tools

## FHS Cardiovascular Disease (10-year risk)

**Outcome**

CVD (coronary death, myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, angina, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, transient ischemic attack, peripheral artery disease, heart failure)

**Duration of follow-up**

Maximum of 12 years, 10-year risk prediction

**Population of interest**

Individuals 30 to 74 years old and without CVD at the baseline examination

**Predictors**

- Age
- Diabetes
- Smoking
- Treated and untreated Systolic Blood Pressure
- Total cholesterol
- HDL cholesterol
- BMI replacing lipids in a simpler model

**Excel spreadsheets:**

#### Regression Coefficients and Hazard Ratios – Primary Model

Men* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.88936) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Variable | Beta** | p-value | Hazard Ratio | 95% CI |

Log of Age | 3.06117 | <.0001 | 21.35 | (14.03, 32.48) |

Log of Total Cholesterol | 1.12370 | <.0001 | 3.08 | (2.05, 4.62) |

Log of HDL Cholesterol | -0.93263 | <.0001 | 0.40 | (0.30, 0.52) |

Log of SBP if not treated | 1.93303 | <.0001 | 6.91 | (3.91, 12.20) |

Log of SBP if treated | 1.99881 | <.0001 | 7.38 | (4.22, 12.92) |

Smoking | 0.65451 | <.0001 | 1.92 | (1.65, 2.24) |

Diabetes | 0.57367 | <.0001 | 1.78 | (1.43, 2.20) |

Women* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.95012) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Variable | Beta** | p-value | Hazard Ratio | 95% CI |

Log of Age | 2.32888 | <.0001 | 10.27 | (5.65, 18.64) |

Log of Total Cholesterol | 1.20904 | <.0001 | 3.35 | (2.00, 5.62) |

Log of HDL Cholesterol | -0.70833 | <.0001 | 0.49 | (0.351, 0.691) |

Log of SBP if not treated | 2.76157 | <.0001 | 15.82 | (7.86, 31.87) |

Log of SBP if treated | 2.82263 | <.0001 | 16.82 | (8.46, 33.46) |

Smoking | 0.52873 | <.0001 | 1.70 | (1.40, 2.06) |

Diabetes | 0.69154 | <.0001 | 2.00 | (1.49, 2.67) |

* The 10-year risk for women can be calculated as 1-0.95012^{exp(ΣßX – 26.1931)} where ß is the regression coefficient and X is the level for each risk factor; the risk for men is given as 1-0.88936^{exp(ΣßX – 23.9802)}

**Estimated regression coefficient

#### Simple Office-based non-laboratory Predictors of CVD Regression Coefficients and Hazard Ratios

Men* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.88431) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Variable | Beta** | p-value | Hazard Ratio | 95% CI |

Log of Age | 3.11296 | <.0001 | 22.49 | (14.80, 34.16) |

Log of Body Mass Index | 0.79277 | <.0066 | 2.21 | (1.25, 3.91) |

Log of SBP if not treated | 1.85508 | <.0001 | 6.39 | (3.61, 11.33) |

Log of SBP if treated | 1.92672 | <.0001 | 6.87 | (3.90, 12.08) |

Smoking | 0.70953 | <.0001 | 2.03 | (1.75, 2.37) |

Diabetes | 0.53160 | <.0001 | 1.70 | (1.37, 2.11) |

Women* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.94833) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Variable | Beta** | p-value | Hazard Ratio | 95% CI |

Log of Age | 2.72107 | <.0001 | 15.20 | (8.59, 26.87) |

Log of Body Mass Index | 0.51125 | <.0609 | 1.67 | (0.98, 2.85) |

Log of SBP if not treated | 2.81291 | <.0001 | 16.66 | (8.27, 33.54) |

Log of SBP if treated | 2.88267 | <.0001 | 17.86 | (8.97, 35.57) |

Smoking | 0.61868 | <.0001 | 1.86 | (1.53, 2.25) |

Diabetes | 0.77763 | <.0001 | 2.18 | (1.63, 2.91) |

* The 10-year risk for women can be calculated as 1-0.94833^{exp(ΣßX – 26.0145)} where ß is the regression coefficient and X is the level for each risk factor; the risk for men is given as 1-0.88431^{exp(ΣßX – 23.9388)}

**Estimated regression coefficient

## Your Heart/Vascular Age: 0

10 Year Risk

## Your Heart/Vascular Age: 0

10 Year Risk