Congestive Heart Failure
Congestive Heart Failure
Outcome
Congestive Heart Failure
Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 38 years, 4-year risk prediction (pooled logistic regression)
Population of interest
Individuals 45 to 94 years old with coronary disease, hypertension or valvular disease
Predictors
- Age
- Left Ventricular Hypertrophy
- Heart rate
- Systolic Blood Pressure
- Coronary Heart Disease
- Valve Disease
- Diabetes
- BMI
- Vital Capacity (some models)
- Cardiomegaly (some models)
Probability of Congestive Heart Failure Within 4 Years for Men Aged 45 to 94 Years
With Coronary Disease, Hypertension, or Valvular Disease*
Model including vital capacity and chest x-ray results
Points | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
Age,y | 45-49 | 50-54 | 55-59 | 60-64 | 65-69 |
Forced vital capacity, cL | ≥425 | 375-424 | 325-374 | 275-324 | 200-274 |
Systolic blood pressure, mm Hg | <120 | 120-139 | 140-169 | 170-189 | 190-219 |
Heart rate, bpm | <55 | 55-64 | 65-79 | 80-89 | 90-99 |
LVH on ECG | No | ||||
Coronary heart disease | No | ||||
Valve disease | No | ||||
Diabetes | No | Yes | |||
Cardiomegaly | No |
Points | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
Age,y | 70-74 | 75-79 | 80-89 | 90-94 | |
Forced vital capacity, cL | 150-199 | ≤149 | |||
Systolic blood pressure, mm Hg | >219 | ||||
Heart rate, bpm | >99 | ||||
LVH on ECG | Yes | ||||
Coronary heart disease | Yes | ||||
Valve disease | Yes | ||||
Diabetes | |||||
Cardiomegaly | Yes |
Points | 4-Year Probability, % | Points | 4-Year Probability, % |
5 | 1 | 26 | 18 |
10 | 1 | 27 | 21 |
12 | 2 | 28 | 24 |
14 | 3 | 29 | 27 |
16 | 4 | 30 | 31 |
18 | 5 | 31 | 34 |
20 | 7 | 33 | 38 |
22 | 10 | 33 | 42 |
24 | 14 | 34 | 47 |
25 | 16 | 35 | 51 |
*LVH indicates left ventricular hypertrophy; ECG, electrocardiogram.
Probability of Congestive Heart Failure Within 4 Years for Men Aged 45 to 94 Years
With Coronary Disease, Hypertension, or Valvular Disease*
Model without vital capacity and chest x-ray results
Points | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
Age, y | 45-49 | 50-54 | 55-59 | 60-64 | 65-69 |
Systolic blood pressure, mm Hg | <120 | 120-139 | 140-169 | 170-189 | 190-219 |
Heart rate, bpm | <55 | 55-64 | 65-79 | 80-89 | 90-104 |
LVH on ECG | No | Yes | |||
Coronary heart disease | No | ||||
Valve disease | No | ||||
Diabetes | No | Yes |
Points | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
Age, y | 70-74 | 75-79 | 80-84 | 85-89 | 90-94 |
Systolic blood pressure, mm Hg | >219 | ||||
Heart rate, bpm | >104 | ||||
LVH on ECG | |||||
Coronary heart disease | Yes | ||||
Valve disease | Yes | ||||
Diabetes |
Points | 4-Year Probability, % | Points | 4-Year Probability, % |
5 | 1 | 24 | 30 |
10 | 3 | 25 | 34 |
12 | 3 | 26 | 39 |
14 | 5 | 27 | 44 |
16 | 8 | 28 | 49 |
18 | 11 | 29 | 54 |
20 | 16 | 30 | 59 |
22 | 22 |
*LVH indicates left ventricular hypertrophy; ECG, electrocardiogram.
Probability of Congestive Heart Failure Within 4 Years for Women Aged 45 to 94 Years
With Coronary Disease, Hypertension, or Valvular Disease*
Model including vital capacity and chest x-ray results
Points | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
Age, y | 45-49 | 50-59 | 60-69 | 70-79 | 80-89 |
Forced vital capacity, cL | >299 | 250-299 | 200-249 | 150-199 | <150 |
Systolic blood pressure, mmHg | <130 | 130-189 | >189 | ||
Heart rate, bpm | <55 | 55-79 | 80-99 | >99 | |
LVH on ECG | No | ||||
Coronary Heart Disease | No | ||||
Cardiomegaly | No | Yes | |||
Valve Disease | No | ||||
Diabetes (no valve disease) | No | ||||
Diabetes (valve disease) | No | Yes |
Points | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
Age, y | 90-94 | ||||
Forced vital capacity, cL | |||||
Systolic blood pressure, mmHg | |||||
Heart rate, bpm | |||||
LVH on ECG | Yes | ||||
Coronary Heart Disease | |||||
Cardiomegaly | Yes | ||||
Valve Disease | Yes | ||||
Diabetes (no valve disease) | Yes | ||||
Diabetes (valve disease) |
Points | 4-Year Probability, % | Points | 4-Year Probability, % |
5 | <1 | 26 | 18 |
10 | 1 | 27 | 21 |
12 | 1 | 28 | 24 |
14 | 2 | 29 | 28 |
16 | 3 | 30 | 32 |
18 | 4 | 31 | 37 |
20 | 6 | 32 | 42 |
22 | 9 | 33 | 46 |
24 | 13 | 34 | 51 |
25 | 15 | 35 | 56 |
*LVH indicates left ventricular hypertrophy; ECG, electrocardiogram.
Probability of Congestive Heart Failure Within 4 Years for Women Aged 45 to 94 Years
With Coronary Disease, Hypertension, or Valvular Disease*
Model without vital capacity and chest x-ray results
Points | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
Age, y | 45-49 | 50-54 | 55-59 | 60-64 | 65-69 |
BMI, kg/m2 | <21 | 21-25 | 26-29 | >29 | <150 |
Systolic blood pressure, mmHg | <140 | 140-209 | >209 | ||
Heart rate, bpm | <60 | 60-79 | 80-104 | >104 | |
LVH on ECG | No | ||||
Coronary Heart Disease | No | ||||
Valve Disease | No | ||||
Diabetes (no valve disease) | No | ||||
Diabetes (valve disease) | No | Yes |
Points | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
Age, y | 70-74 | 75-79 | 80-84 | 85-89 | 90-94 |
BMI, kg/m2 | |||||
Systolic blood pressure, mmHg | |||||
Heart rate, bpm | |||||
LVH on ECG | Yes | ||||
Coronary Heart Disease | Yes | ||||
Valve Disease | Yes | ||||
Diabetes (no valve disease) | Yes | ||||
Diabetes (valve disease) |
Points | 4-Year Probability, % | Points | 4-Year Probability, % |
5 | <1 | 19 | 14 |
10 | 2 | 20 | 17 |
11 | 2 | 21 | 21 |
12 | 3 | 22 | 25 |
13 | 3 | 23 | 30 |
14 | 4 | 24 | 36 |
15 | 5 | 25 | 42 |
16 | 7 | 26 | 48 |
17 | 9 | 27 | 54 |
18 | 11 | 28 | 60 |
*LVH indicates left ventricular hypertrophy; ECG, electrocardiogram.
Pooled Logistic Regression Model With Coefficients and Odds Ratios*
Model including vital capacity and chest x-ray information
Variables | Units | Regression Coefficient |
OR (95% CI) | P |
Men | ||||
Intercept | -7.3611 | |||
Age | 10 y | 0.0313 | 1.37 (1.17-1.60) | <.001 |
LVH | Yes/no | 0.8428 | 2.32 (1.51-3.56) | <.001 |
Vital capacity | 100 cL | -0.0030 0.74 | (0.61-0.90) | 0.003 |
Heart rate | 10 bpm | 0.0144 | 1.15 (1.05-1.27) | 0.002 |
Systolic blood pressure | 20 mm Hg | 0.0067 | 1.14 (1.02-1.29) | 0.03 |
CHD | Yes/no | 1.5333 | 4.63 (3.52-6.10) | <.001 |
Valve disease | Yes/no | 0.8868 | 2.43 (1.73-3.41) | <.001 |
Diabetes | Yes/no | 0.2383 | 1.27 (0.90-1.79) | 0.17 |
Cardiomegaly | Yes/no | 0.7968 | 2.22 (1.63-3.01) | <.001 |
Women | ||||
Intercept | -5.4997 | |||
Age | 10 y | 0.0216 | 1.24 (1.06-1.45) | 0.007 |
LVH | Yes/no | 1.0072 | 2.74 (1.78-4.22) | <.001 |
Vital capacity | 100 cL | -0.0087 | 0.42 (0.33-0.55) | <.001 |
Heart rate | 10 bpm | 0.0092 | 1.10 (0.99-1.21) | 0.07 |
Systolic blood pressure | 20 mm Hg | 0.0032 | 1.07 (0.96-1.20) | 0.24 |
CHD | Yes/no | 1.5358 | 4.64 (3.42-6.31) | <.001 |
Valve disease | Yes/no | 1.2454 | 3.47 (2.46-4.92) | <.001 |
Diabetes | Yes/no | 1.4275 | 4.17 (2.91-5.97) | <.001 |
Cardiomegaly | Yes/no | 0.4792 | 1.61 (1.21-2.16) | 0.001 |
Valve disease and diabetes | Yes/no | -0.9293 | 0.39 (0.19-0.83) | 0.01 |
*OR indicates odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; LVH, left ventricular hypertrophy; and CHD,congenital heart disease.
Predicted probability of heart failure can be calculated as: p = 1/(1+exp(-xbeta)), where xbeta = Intercept + Sum (of regression coefficient*value of risk factor)
Pooled Logistic Regression Model With Coefficients and Odds Ratios*
Model without vital capacity and chest x-ray information
Variables | Units | Regression Coefficient |
OR (95% CI) | P |
Men | ||||
Intercept | -9.2087 | |||
Age | 10 y | 0.0412 | 1.51 (1.31-1.74) | <.001 |
LVH | Yes/no | 0.9026 | 2.47 (1.31-3.77) | <.001 |
Heart rate | 10 bpm | 0.0166 | 1.18 (1.08-1.29) | <.001 |
Systolic blood pressure | 20 mm Hg | 0.00804 | 1.17 (1.04-1.32) | 0.007 |
CHD | Yes/no | 1.6079 | 4.99 (3.80-6.55) | <.001 |
Valve disease | Yes/no | 0.9714 | 2.64 (1.89-3.69) | <.001 |
Diabetes | Yes/no | 0.2244 | 1.25 (0.89-1.76) | 0.2 |
Women | ||||
Intercept | -10.7988 | |||
Age | 10 y | 0.0503 | 1.65 (1.42-1.93) | <.001 |
LVH | Yes/no | 1.3402 | 3.82 (2.50-5.83) | <.001 |
Heart rate | 100 cL | 0.0105 | 1.11 (1.01-1.23) | 0.03 |
Systolic blood pressure | 10 bpm | 0.00337 | 1.07 (0.96-1.20) | 0.24 |
CHD | 20 mm Hg | 1.5549 | 4.74 (3.49-6.42) | <.001 |
Valve disease | Yes/no | 1.3929 | 4.03 (2.86-5.67) | <.001 |
Diabetes | Yes/no | 1.3857 | 4.00 (2.78-5.74) | <.001 |
BMI | kg/m2 | 0.0578 | 1.06 (1.03-1.09) | <.001 |
Valve disease and diabetes | Yes/no | -0.9860 | 0.37 (0.18-0.78) | 0.009 |
*OR indicates odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; LVH, left ventricular hypertrophy; CHD, congenital heart disease; and BMI, body mass index. Predicted probability of heart failure can be calculated as: p = 1/(1+exp(-xbeta)), where xbeta = Intercept + Sum (of regression coefficient*value of risk factor)